The Senate apparently won't take up the House's "reform" of the Estate Tax this week, but Frist still intends to bring it to the floor before the November elections, if he thinks he can add enough "sweeteners" to bring in wavering Democrats, like the House's addition of a provision cutting taxes for the timber industry. I'm still hopeful that the Democrats (and maybe a few Republicans) will stand strong on this one.
In the meantime, the barrage of op-eds, editorials, and articles continues. Bruce Bartlett (whose earlier Wall Street Journal op-ed on the taxation of illegal immigrants I found short on understanding of the way these hard workers contribute to our system by paying taxes, under borrowed social security numbers or legitimate numbers provided by the IRS, see this post), also wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal on June 20, 2006 on "Estate Tax Questions." He raises three questions that he claims "need answers" before final resolution of the estate tax issue.
The first question is whether the current support for raising the estate tax exemption and reducing the tax rate by those who have been opponents of repeal is due to the "strong case" made by proponents of repeal and the ability of proponents to garner majority support in the House and Senate. Bartlett claims that it is "absurd" to consider people with estates at the 2001 exemption level "rich in any meaningful sense of the term" and therefore these smaller estates are inappropriate targets for the estate tax. He credits the repeal effort for convincing many opponents of repeal that an increased exemption level makes sense, claiming that "the middle class would still be subject to the estate tax without the efforts of those seeking repeal."
To respond requires some unpacking. First, I'm quite willing to credit the estate tax repeal effort with bringing the various attributes of the estate tax to the attention of the nation. Regrettably, it has been in the context of considerable misinformation and repeated sloganeering around ideas. There has been a well-coordinated and well-funded effort by wealthy families and certain think tanks, such as Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform (see this prior post about ATR, on a different topic regarding Norquist's apparent use of ATR in connection with Abramoff's lobbying scams), the Cato Institute, and the Tax Foundation, to present a litany of sound bites to convince Americans (and Congressional Democrats) that estate tax repeal is necessary. The continued drumbeat for repeal tended to cause people to (i) think they might lose their family farm (because of the misleading discussion of loss of family farms and family businesses to the estate tax, without mentioning the generous installment payment provisions already in the Code to deal with liquidity issues or the lack of empirical evidence of any farms being lost because of the tax), (ii) to consider the estate tax inherently unfair (because of the misleading claims of "double" and "triple" taxation, when in fact much of a taxable estate is unrealized appreciation that has never been taxed during the decedent's lifetime or perhaps even during prior decedents' lifetimes),and (iii) to put pressure on opponents of repeal to consider what changes might be acceptable short of repeal, a process that has not yet ended. Thus the "credit" might rather be "blame" for causing the estate tax to be discussed in an atmosphere of misinformation instead in one of careful deliberation around the reasons for the estate tax, the importance to a democracy of limiting the gap between haves and have nots, the empirical evidence about who pays the estate tax and how much is paid, and the relationship between the estate tax and the income and gift tax regimes.
Further, it should be made clear that all opponents of repeal do not support raising the exemption and reducing the rate---certainly not to the levels contemplated by the purported "compromise" bill passed by the House. I would prefer to see the estate tax converted to a more steeply graduated tax, with a top rate above the 2001 rate of 55% (perhaps even 65% for mega-estates) and the bottom rate, for the smallest estates that barely exceed the exemption level, no lower than 40%. I'd like to see the exemption remain somewhere in the $1- $2 million range, with inflation adjustments to prevent downward bracket creep--it should be high enough to exempt the estates of well-provisioned middle class families, but leave most of the top quintile subject to the estate tax. When the exemption is taken into account, the effective tax rate will be well below the statutory rate. In fact, the effective tax rate on the largest taxable estates under current law with a $2 million exemption is only about 14%--less than the capital gains rate.
Further, for most ordinary Americans who have assets well below the $600,000 exemption level that applied in 2001, estates of that magnitude are indeed "rich." Wealth is relative in a society where the median annual income is considerably less than $50,000 a year and the assets held by a family, even in the middle class, may consist primarily of the equity in a home and a small amount in a savings account. The fact that $600,000 homes are not "uncommon" does not mean that they are not in fact the exclusive province of a very select group of Americans. The ordinary middle class family of four living on $40,000 a year does not live in a $600,000 home.
It is true that the staggering wealth of the ultra-rich in this country today is vastly different from the modest wealth that a home and bank account with a few stocks and bonds or retirement annuity represent. That staggering wealth is indeed the prime target for the estate tax. That is why a progressive rate structure for the estate tax would be imminently reasonable, with estates worth $30 billion taxed considerably higher than estates worth only $1 million. The estate tax, after all, is the final chance to collect at least one level of tax on unrealized appreciation that makes up a large portion of such estates, and is a device that protects democracy by making it harder for families to accumulate wealth that can be passed down to succeeding generations, creating an unlevel playing field.
Bartlett's second question relates to the driving force behind repeal of the estate tax. He says that supporters "constantly say that the repeal effort is driven solely by a few rich familes that are selfishly pushing for repeal." But he says, "if that is true" why do majorities of Americans support repeal, as shown by various polls and surveys? He suggests there are two reasons--people believe the tax is unfair--savings and income are taxed during life and shouldn't be taxed again at death, or people believe they will become rich and their heirs will lose more than half their assets to the government when they die.
First, it is clear that the effort for repeal is being pushed by a few wealthy families and affiliated entities. See this post about the Public Citizen/United for a Fair Economy report on the way wealthy families have bankrolled the repeal effort.
Second, the majority's apparently negative views towards the estate tax as revealed by polls may well be a combination of Bartlett's suggestions--many Americans may believe it is unfair or believe they will be subject to losing "more than half of their assets" when they die. But then we have to question the source of those beliefs. The repeal effort has apparently done everything in its power to make Americans think that way. Certainly, given the exemption level and the fact that the effective rate on even the largest estates is around 14%, it is erroneous for any American to believe that they might lose "more than half their assets" just because the rate (in 2001) was 55%, or to believe that ordinary Americans lose their family farms year after year to the estate tax, or to believe that many families are hard pressed to pay their heavy estate tax burden. That suggests that the main problem with the majority's view against the estate tax is that they aren't basing their views on a full explanation of the facts. Similar misconceptions about the actual workings of the income tax system--that lead people to support regressive tax reform (i.e., a flat tax or consumption tax) when they actually believe that progressive tax systems are better--have been documented by Joel Slemrod. See Slemrod, The Role of Misconceptions in Support for Regressive Tax Reform, 59 Nat'l Tax J. 57 (2006). See also Maria Petrova's article on "Inequality and Media Capture," which argues that "[p]eople's support of redistributive policies depends on information they have about the tax system and efficiency of public projects." Id. at Abstract (noting that the rich can capture the media to "manipulat[e] public opinion," at a cost of course, so that "higher inequality is associated with lower media freedom"). The American public's lack of understanding is due in part to failure of those who believe the estate tax is important to adequately inform the public about its benefits and the way it works, and in part to the success of those who are pushing repeal to portray the estate tax as something that hits ordinary families, when in fact it does not.
(Another factor might be Americans' dismal ignorance about the actual income and wealth distribution in this country. I recall reading--sorry, I no longer have the cite--a statistic along the lines of the following: more than 40% of Americans think that they are in the top 5% of the income distribution. That misinformation could easily make Americans worry that their little bit of savings will be subject to tax.)
Bartlett's third question is based on a letter to the editor in the New York Times in which a reader wrote that the estate tax is basically optional because of all the planning around it that can be done, so repeal is really unnecessary. Bartlett suggests that is "the worst defense of any tax I have ever heard" since it indicates that the tax is arbitrary and falls only on the ignorant. He concludes with the statement that "estate tax supporters have a lot of nerve turning a fatal flaw in that tax into a prime virtue."
Come now, Bartlett. It really isn't cricket to take a single (tongue-in-cheek?) letter and imply that "estate tax supporters" generally are taking that position. (To be fair, Bartlett says that he "often hear[s]" such an argument.) I saw the letter to the editor when it appeared. I thought at the time that elimination of loopholes is the answer, not elimination of the estate tax. So there is a point to be considered here. As Bartlett notes, proponents of revenue reductions have frequently made the "argument from noncompliance" in favor of one more revenue reduction. It goes something like this. "There is a tax on X. Taxpayers have been evading the tax on X. Therefore we can cut evasion of taxes by eliminating the tax on X." My response to those arguments, made elsewhere in this blog, has consistently been that the effort should be directed to the problem. If avoidance or evasion is the problem, develop ways to eliminate the avoidance, not the tax. So, in the case of the estate tax, Congress should simply legislate away the various known devices for avoiding the estate tax rather than eliminating the tax. Neither Bartlett's response (noncompliance by sophisticated taxpayers is a "fatal flaw" that should lead Congress to repeal the tax) nor the letter writer's assertion (it's "optional" so no need to repeal it) is an appropriate legislative response to noncompliance and loophole usage. Noncompliance, and the various devices currently permitted for avoiding estate tax, should be dealt with so that sophisticated taxpayers cannot simply "plan around" it.
All in all, Bartlett's arguments seem rather like straw men on the field that really counts--should we eliminate the estate tax, which serves as the one way to capture tax on much of the value of wealthy estates, or should we retain it? If we retain it, in what form does it make sense to have a wealth transfer tax apply? Should we, in fact, enhance the millionaire's estate tax, so that it plays a more significant role in leveling the playing field for new generations? In answering that question, do we need to consider the way wealth translates to power and influence in a democracy? Are there points at which accumulations of wealth can actually threaten democracy's sustainability?
These are the questions that should be openly discussed on the floor of the Senate the next time Frist brings estate tax "reform" to the floor.
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