President Obama's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility is a worrisome entity, supported by those on the right like Peter Peterson, a billionaire hedge fund manager who has been trying to get rid of Social Security for years. Instead of recognizing that the financial crisis and its aftermath are hurting millions of vulnerable citizens and considering appropriately what kind of actions can be taken to reduce deficits over the long run through methods that do not harm the more vulnerable among us, the commission is taking aim at the programs that are intended to form this nation's safety net (the "entitlements"). Rather than focus on eliminating most of Bush's tax cuts for corporations and individuals, the commission is apparently focussing on Social Security as a vulnerable target given the state of the economy after the bank-induced financial crisis. This falls right into the hands of those who have long wanted to eliminate or privatize Social Security, in spite of the fact that Social Security is not the cause of the deficit (profligate bank speculation is the cause) and even though Social Security itself is nowhere near bankrupt (it produces a surplus) and even though the potential problems predicted for the far-out future can be easily handled later (75 years from now, who knows wht the economics of the US will look like; we could easily remove the cap on Social Security contributions and also tax capital income as well as labor income, with minimal increases in benefits for those at the top).
Alan Simpson is co-chair of the Commission. I must admit I never respected him, or liked his snide elitism and or saw any hope for good policy from a commission that he co-chaired. That is even more true now. If you want to see Simpson in full color, look at this video clip of Simpson responding to an interviewer after a commission meeting, from MoveOn.org Are you one of the "lesser people"?
Simpson refers to the vulnerable and elderly who count on receiving the Social Security insurance payments that they have funded as "lesser people." That statement reflects his elitism. Simpson is interested in pushing cuts on Social Security--claiming that "Social Security is bankrupt" (even though it runs a surplus); relying on the average life expectancy increase to justify changing the age (which fails to capture the reality of the varying life expectancies of poor (lower) and wealthy (much higher); treating the fact that the Social Security surplus has been used to fund government (including to make the deficit seem less to make possible Bush's tax cuts primarily targeted to the wealthy) with an internal IOU into the fund as justification for claiming that Social Security is "bankrupt" now (even though revenues from payroll taxes and interest paid by government indicates that the fund still receives more revenues than it pays out) and therefore government should not pay that money out to seniors; and apparently focusing on this manufactured problem rather than on the ways that the tax cuts and military expansion/warmongering under Bush contributed to the current deficit. Simpson flat out misstates the history of the 1983 changes to create the trust fund surplus so that Social Security could cover baby boomers. Further, Simpson makes no sense at all when he says that looking at the interest on government debt to Social Security as revenues to Social Security is a "double hit on your own government."
Why is it that there is all this talk of cutting benefits/increasing age limits for Social Security but very little acknowledgement that the "problem" may not even exist (it is based on very conservative actuarial estimates) and even less discussion these days of the idea that removing the Social Security earnings cap could assure sufficient funding (especially if coupled with applying the tax to capital as well as labor income, which would help address income inequality, since small groups receive a growing share of capital income. See Orr & Turner, Apr. 14, 2010, here, showing that the top 1% receive almost 60% of the capital income). See, e.g., Josh Bivens, Removing the Social Security earnings Cap Virtually Eliminates Funding Gap, Economic Policy INstitute, Feb. 17, 2005 (noting that a mere 1.9 percentage-point increase in the existing payroll tax dedicated to Social Security would clase the projected funding gap over a 75-year period). (Note that the cap has increased with inflation, so that it is slightly under $110,000 today.)
For various other takes on Simpson and on the focus on Social Security cuts to satisfy deficit hawks (instead of a focus on rebuilding the economy or deficit reduction measures that really make sense), see the following:
John Berry, Simpson's Comments Undermine Commission Efforts, Fiscal Times, June 20, 2010 . Berry offers a succinct statement of the Social Security surplus:
Since Social Security finances were overhauled in 1983, tax revenues have far exceeded costs. That surplus went into the trust fund, was invested in Treasuries and has been earning interest for almost 30 years. Those annual surpluses meant that the government did not have to borrow as much from the public to finance whatever it spend money on.
Dean Baker, How to impress the bond markets, Guardian, Jun 21, 2010 [hat tip Mark Thoma at economists view]
The deficit hawks have been pushing the line in recent months that we have to make cuts in social security, along with some revenue increases, in order to reassure the bond markets about the creditworthiness of the US government. According to this argument, by taking tough steps (ie cutting social security benefits) we will have shown the bond markets that we are prepared to do what is necessary to keep our budget deficits within manageable levels.
There is some reason to question the merits of this argument. First off, the deficit hawks don't have an especially good track record in the insight category. Not one person among the leading crusaders was able to see the $8tn housing bubble that wrecked the economy. If they couldn't see something so huge that was right in front of their face, we might wonder about their ability to ascertain anything as amorphous as the sentiment of actors in bond markets.
Beale here: Baker goes on to note that (i) Social Security is a strange object of fixation, since it can pay for future benefits through 2044 with no changes whatsoever and after that with relatively minor changes; (ii) cutting benefits for near-retirees, especially in light of the hit taken from the recent crisis, is "cruel and unwarranted" and "has the feeling of class bullies telling the rest of us that we have [to] beat up the weakest kid in the class in order to be admitted to the club;" better items to put on the table would be a financial transaction tax that cracks down on Wall Street or the drug costs paid to Big Pharma (10 times what they would cost in a competitive market without government patentmonopolies) or a public insurance option (CBO projected it would save $100 billion in just the first decade.
Trudy Lieberman, More Words of Wisdom from Alan Simpson, Columbia Journalism Review (hat tip--Angry Bear commenters)
What the dickens did Simpson mean by “the lesser people?” Did he mean everyone who doesn’t belong to the investment banking community, where a lot of the deficit commission acolytes come from, including Peter G. Peterson, who has been working to make Social Security reductions Solution Numero Uno for the deficit problem? (Peterson is a CJR funder.) Did he mean those with modest or low incomes, even the poor for whom Social Security is the major source of income in retirement and will continue to be for years to come?
***
If the commission does recommend cutting Social Security benefits by raising the retirement age for full benefits, members of Congress who vote on it will have some explaining to do for their constituents—especially those in their fifties who have paid a lot into the system, have lost their jobs, and might have to wait longer to collect benefits.
Paul Krugman, Zombies Have Already Killed the Deficit Commission, Jun.21, 2010
Simpson has resurrected the old nonsense about how Social Security will be bankrupt as soon as payroll tax revenues fall short of benefit payments, never mind the quarter century of surpluses that came first. ...
Social Security is a government program funded by a dedicated tax. There are two ways to look at this. First, you can simply view the program as part of the general federal budget, with the the dedicated tax bit just a formality. And there’s a lot to be said for that point of view; if you take it, benefits are a federal cost, payroll taxes a source of revenue, and they don’t really have anything to do with each other.
Alternatively, you can look at Social Security on its own. And as a practical matter, this has considerable significance too; as long as Social Security still has funds in its trust fund, it doesn’t need new legislation to keep paying promised benefits. ...
But ... you can’t have it both ways. You can’t say that for the last 25 years, when Social Security ran surpluses, well, that didn’t mean anything, because it’s just part of the federal government — but when payroll taxes fall short of benefits, even though there’s lots of money in the trust fund, Social Security is broke.
Recent Comments